Your SMSF & Stock Alerts: MQG, SGP and GNP

The ASX 200 has had a mixed run recently, but there are plenty of reasons to believe this could be a good time to buy. The index just posted its best week of the year, bouncing back from oversold conditions. Most sectors finished higher, helped by improving sentiment around a potential rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the absence of new tariff concerns. Consumer staples led the way after favourable regulatory developments, while energy and gold stocks saw strong gains thanks to a rebound in crude oil prices and record gold levels. The index found support around a key technical level, and if it holds, we could see a push higher. Tech stocks have also shown solid growth potential, adding to the case for a bullish outlook. We’re also seeing companies announce strategic shifts and shareholder returns, indicating confidence in future performance. Given these market conditions, we’ve released three “buy” ratings. That said, we’re keeping a close eye on volatility, as near-term swings are still likely. In this article, we’ll break down the key price levels and potential risk-adjusted entry points. Let’s dive into these three buys. “Buy” Rating for Macquarie Group: Solid Earnings and Strategic Growth Source: MQG Weekly Chart (2025) Since our initial recommendation of Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG) at $113.05 per share, the stock has experienced an impressive rally, gaining over 79%. We are maintaining our “Buy” rating, driven by the company’s robust financial performance and diversified business operations. As of December 2024, Macquarie’s assets under management (AUM) have reached $942.7 billion, with international operations contributing 65% of its income. Despite ongoing pressures in the commodity markets, the company’s core asset management and banking businesses remain strong, while its growth in private markets is helping to drive overall profitability. Strong Financial Performance and a Solid Capital Position Supporting the Investment Case Macquarie’s net profit for the first half of FY25 came in at $1.61 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase from FY24, thanks to favourable market conditions and growth in its private markets segment. The company’s capital position is exceptionally strong, with a reported capital surplus of $8.5 billion as of December 2024—well above regulatory requirements. Its CET1 ratio is a healthy 12.6%, while its Leverage Ratio stands at 5.0%, ensuring ample flexibility for future growth initiatives. Additionally, Macquarie’s ongoing $2 billion on-market share buyback program and a 5% increase in its 1H25 dividend to $2.60 per share further emphasize its commitment to returning value to shareholders. The payout ratio stands at 61%, highlighting the company’s ability to balance growth and shareholder returns. Technical Outlook: Key Levels and Entry Points for Investors From a technical perspective, Macquarie’s stock has recently seen a consolidation phase in the $190-$200 range after breaching the significant $200 level. This price action suggests the stock is in an oversold territory and could potentially set the stage for a breakout. A rise above the near-term resistance level of $210 would indicate a bullish shift, contingent on improving broader market conditions. However, given the current geopolitical uncertainties, there is a risk that MQG shares could retest the medium-term support level around $180 if macroeconomic challenges persist. In light of these technical considerations, we recommend a dollar-cost averaging strategy to smooth out entry prices and manage volatility, allowing investors to benefit from potential upside while managing downside risks effectively. With a target price above $254 per share, MQG is an attractive buy for both income and capital appreciation. [CLICK HERE TO ACCESS MQG’s FULL RESEARCH REPORT] Stockland (ASX: SGP): Diversified Property Portfolio and Strategic Expansion Position Company for Long-Term Growth – ‘Buy’ Rating Source: SGP Weekly Chart (2025) Since our initial recommendation, Stockland (ASX: SGP) shares at $3.70 have gained over 35%, showing strong performance, indicating solid growth and stability within the company’s real estate portfolio and strategic initiatives. Stockland Corporation Ltd is a diversified real estate group that specializes in the development, ownership, and management of a wide range of income-generating properties, including residential, commercial, and mixed-use developments. The company is dedicated to creating connected communities and providing integrated real estate solutions across various sectors, which further enhances its long-term growth potential and positions it as a leader in the real estate industry. Maintaining Our Long-Term “Buy” Rating Based on Stockland’s Strong Strategy and Results We continue to maintain a long-term “Buy” rating on Stockland (ASX: SGP). With its strong real estate portfolio and a clear, forward-thinking growth strategy, Stockland remains an attractive choice for income-focused investors seeking stability. The company’s impressive 1H25 results, coupled with disciplined capital management and multiple expansion drivers, position it well for long-term growth and resilience in fluctuating market conditions, making it a reliable pick for investors. Stockland’s Solid Financials and Growth Drivers Support Future Success Stockland posted a statutory profit of $245 million for 1H25, more than doubling its profit of $102 million from 1H24. Although FFO per security declined by 5.6% year-over-year to 10.5 cents, the company maintained its distribution at a steady 8.0 cents per security. Stockland’s financial stability remains robust, with a net tangible asset (NTA) per security of $4.14 and a conservative gearing ratio of 27.9%, well within its target range, showcasing the company’s sound financial position and sustainable growth strategy. Strategic Growth Across Core Segments Enhances Stockland’s Earnings Potential The strategic growth initiatives across Stockland’s core business segments—logistics, residential development, and data centres—bolster its earnings potential moving forward. The acquisition of 12 master-planned communities strengthens Stockland’s housing pipeline, while its logistics portfolio continues to benefit from high demand, maintaining a 97.3% occupancy rate. With a development pipeline valued at approximately $49 billion, Stockland is well-positioned for sustainable, long-term growth in both existing and emerging markets, giving it an edge in capturing future real estate opportunities. Technical Outlook: Key Levels for Investors to Watch in SGP Stockland’s share price has shown resilience despite broader market sell-offs. Currently, the stock is consolidating in a range between medium-term support at $4.74 and resistance at $5.36. We see potential entry points below $5, with near-term consolidation likely to occur in the $4.56–$4.87 range. For those seeking optimal risk-adjusted entry points, we recommend a dollar-cost averaging approach. A breakout above the medium-term resistance of $5.36 could lead to a rally towards $6, with longer-term potential reaching $10 per share, making Stockland a compelling option for investors seeking growth over time. [CLICK HERE TO ACCESS SGP’s FULL RESEARCH REPORT] Maintaining Long-Term “Buy” Rating on GenusPlus Group Ltd (ASX: GNP) Despite H1 FY25 Dividend Hold Source: GNP Weekly Chart (2025) Since our initial recommendation at $2.16 per share, GenusPlus Group Ltd (ASX: GNP) has demonstrated impressive growth, with the stock increasing by more than 32%. The company is a key player in Australia’s power and communications infrastructure sector, capitalizing on its ability to design, build, and maintain essential infrastructure, including electrical transmission networks, substations, and battery systems. GenusPlus is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid expansion of the renewable energy sector, particularly as the demand for upgraded infrastructure continues to rise. Solid Financial Results and Future Growth Outlook: Evidence of Robust Business Operations GenusPlus delivered strong financial performance in the first half of FY25. Revenue surged by 33%, reaching $333 million, while normalized EBITDA rose 25% to $27.4 million. The company’s net profit after tax saw an impressive 51.4% increase, totaling $13.7 million, with earnings per share growing by 51% to 7.7 cents. Despite choosing to pause its dividend in order to reinvest in future growth, these results underscore GenusPlus’ ability to generate solid returns and maintain a strong financial foundation. A Growing Orderbook and Solid Recurring Revenue: Ensuring Long-Term Earnings Visibility and Stability The company’s growing orderbook further strengthens its outlook, reaching a record $1.5 billion, with a tender pipeline of $2.2 billion. Additionally, its forecast for recurring revenue in FY25 of $276 million (up from $224 million in FY24) adds significant earnings visibility and stability. These factors contribute to the long-term growth potential of GenusPlus, positioning it to capitalize on continued demand for infrastructure services, particularly in the renewable energy sector. Key Technical Levels to Monitor for Future Price Action and Potential Breakouts in GNP On the technical front, GNP has been exhibiting strong bullish momentum, maintaining a solid uptrend even during recent market corrections. However, the stock is currently facing some near-term resistance near the $2.92 level, which may trigger consolidation. We expect the stock to potentially consolidate between the $2.32 and $3.00 range before breaking through the resistance and targeting higher levels. The next key level to watch is around $3.50, with a longer-term potential to reach $4. With this in mind, we advise maintaining a cautious outlook regarding short-term volatility, and suggest employing a dollar-cost averaging approach, especially at entry points below $2.90 and $2.50. Given the company’s solid fundamentals and growth prospects, we continue to maintain a “buy” rating on GNP, with a target price of $3.48 per share, based on a 10-year Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. [CLICK HERE TO ACCESS GNP’s FULL RESEARCH REPORT]